May 11, 2008... Burma unseen.

Cyclone Nargis may have a much wider impact than the effects of wind and flooding already wreaking havoc in Burma. The international news coverage of the catastrophe is an alarming echo of the coverage which justified the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, 9/11 excepted: A downtrodden citizenry is under the vicious control of a ruthless dictatorship. The Junta, in the case of Burma.

When Afghanistan and Iraq were invaded, and the dictatorships were deposed, the militia and warlords who had previously been heavily suppressed, rapidly gained the upper hand. Furthermore, because of the west's insistence upon central, democratic government, the fight was well and truly on by the militias and warlords for control of such an authority, as in Somalia, with the west held hostage for the blood and treasure.

The problem of Burma is presented simply as the Junta versus the Burmese. However, it is really the Junta in consort with and versus a myriad of inter-militia violence, ongoing since the time of General Aung San's assassination at the hands of a rival.

France and the US have threatened to deliver aid in spite of any objections by the Junta. Following through on this threat would necessitate the overthrow of the Junta, which, by all accounts, would be a matter of about 72 hours' worth of military action. But this would result in France and the US having to be a southeast Asian coalition of the willing, with another failed state on their hands, and having to contend with a Burmese militia insurgency for control of a government fronted by Aung San Suu Kyi.

The terrain of Burma is akin to Afghanistan with jungles, and has a population of almost four times that of Iraq. France, as an EU member-state with many social commitments at home, is almost bankrupt, and simply cannot afford the blood and treasure to get involved in any adventures in Burma. The US is totally bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq to the extent that it now has to seriously consider taking on more NATO responsibilities in southern Afghanistan, and assume even more responsibility for Iraq including southern Iraq. It would be hard to believe that the American people want commit to a further round of blood and treasure, but may be suckered into such a commitment on the back of humanitarian aid.

It must also be remembered that Burma is in China's backyard.