July 09, 2008 ... Hands up! You're surrounded!

According to Iran's navy commander General Hossein Salami, the most recent missile exercise was a clear demonstration of resolve and might in the face of any enemy aggression. In the first instance, this message was directed towards Israel, as if to suggest that a conflict with Israel is about as devastating as being attacked by Amy Winehouse in a London pub. Leaving aside Israel's allies who have sworn their unswerving allegiance, but have shown extreme difficulty in their efforts to thwart the might of Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, Iran's leadership is seriously pushing its luck when it persists in antagonising Israel into taking action against Iran's nuclear facilities and defence capabilities.

Iran's leadership has threatened to cut off the Strait of Hormuz. But at 55 Km wide at its narrowest, and without a significant navy to back up any threat, this will be impractical. Furthermore, the US and UK will be taking coincidental action to make sure that Iran's missile capability is destroyed, as soon as Israeli bombers and fighter aircraft are airborne.

Iran's leadership has threatened to attack coalition troops in neighbouring Arab states. However, this will pull in France and Germany who are already deployed in the region. Saudi Arabia, for one, has been cited as saying that they will be raising no objections. Nor will any of the UAE who stand to lose a lot by any Iranian action in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's leadership has threatened to use its agents and sympathisers abroad to conduct a global insurgency. But given the protracted length of time over which the P5+1 (the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) have been negotiating with Iran, and including the counter terrorism responses already in place, the majority of such an insurgency will be rolled up as a coincident action, and not as retro-active action.

In short, Iran's leadership, at all levels, over time, has bunkered down and chosen to defy the world. As a result, they have become surrounded by those who are not their enemies, but by those who have a great interest in seeing that the young Iranians who compose the majority of contemporary Iranian society, are not downtrodden as they currently are, like their Zimbabwean counterparts. It is also in the interests of those whom the current Iranian leadership considers to be its enemies, for the millions of Iranian exiles residing in the US and across the EU, to be able to return to Iran in order to put to make better use of the western values they have come to value in addition to the cultural traditions they also hold dear.

The ball is very much in the court of the Iranian leadership, and with a poverty level in excess of 40%, it is unlikely that they can depend on any popular Iranian support. As for the call for direct negotiations at a summit level, etc., direct and indirect talks have never ceased, to the extent that the Iranian leadership has been TOLD that an Iranian nuclear weapons capability will not be tolerated. Just as soon as the Iranian leadership accept this, and credibly sign up to binding agreements, and not the lies and obfuscation which have plagued any meaningful outcome from the P5+1 talks, negotiations are then possible.